JPMorgan's $2,250 Target on SanDisk Is Still Below the Stock's Own 52-Week High

by Karl Lindström · August 14, 2026

Semiconductors & Hardware Reporter, Frontier Tech Wire

SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK) rose again on Friday after JPMorgan put a rating back on the memory maker, extending a stock that had already jumped 13.67% on Thursday. Shares changed hands at $1,635.12, up $107.01 or 7.00%, when Frontier Tech Wire pulled a live quote from stockanalysis.com at 2:09 p.m. ET — an intraday print, with the session still open. The same page put the market capitalisation at about $243.6 billion and the year-to-date gain at roughly 541%.

The action deserves a more precise label than much of the wire coverage gave it: this was a resumption, not a fresh initiation and not an upgrade. JPMorgan first picked up SanDisk at Neutral on December 8, 2025, per Fintel data published by Nasdaq; the rating later lapsed to Not Rated, and it is from that suspended state that analyst Harlan Sur moved the name to Overweight on Friday. Benzinga and Investing.com say only that Sur went to Overweight "from Not Rated," but 24/7 Wall St.'s analyst-calls roundup records SanDisk as "resumed with an Overweight rating at JPMorgan," and TipRanks likewise reports Sur "resumed coverage."

Sur's price target is $2,250 with a December 2027 horizon, which Benzinga calculated as roughly 47% above Thursday's $1,528.11 close. That target is about 4% below SanDisk's own 52-week high of $2,354.39, per stockanalysis.com. JPMorgan is not forecasting uncharted territory; it is forecasting that a stock which already traded above $2,350 within the past year gets most of the way back there.

Two sets of growth numbers are circulating, and they belong to two different authors. The mid-to-high-teens revenue growth figure in most of Friday's coverage is SanDisk's, not JPMorgan's: it comes from Thursday's investor day release, which set out a fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030 model of mid-to-high-teens revenue growth, non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 80%, non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 75%, and an adjusted free cash flow margin of approximately 50%.

JPMorgan's contribution is on the earnings line. Sur is modelling an EPS compound annual growth rate above 25% and a calendar 2027 EPS estimate of $250 — figures Benzinga and Investing.com both attribute to his note rather than to management. At $1,635.12 the stock trades at roughly six and a half times that estimate. The bull case is not that SanDisk grows faster than management says; it is that the market refuses to pay a non-cyclical multiple for it.

Sur's note frames SanDisk as positioned to capture a structural inflection in NAND demand driven by AI inference, and leans on the contract structure the company has been building. Per Benzinga's account, the eight signed agreements represent about $94 billion of total contract value, have a weighted-average duration of more than four years, and carry $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. One number there is genuinely JPMorgan's: Benzinga writes that "JPMorgan estimates gross margins could remain around 80% even at floor pricing."

Those dollar figures are the company's, though, and did not originate at Thursday's investor day. Chief financial officer Luis Visoso put them on the record on the August 5 earnings call, saying total expected revenue from all signed New Business Model agreements is a minimum of $93.9 billion assuming floor pricing, backed by $16.5 billion of cash deposits and financial instruments, per the Motley Fool; 24/7 Wall St. reports the same figures as management disclosure. Thursday's release is narrower: eight customers signed, covering approximately 50% of SanDisk's bits in fiscal 2027 and roughly two-thirds in fiscal 2028, with no dollar figure. At least one Friday write-up muddled that further, citing ten agreements while attributing the $93.9 billion to eight customers.

Management's language was about durability rather than a single cycle. "Our strong performance today is the direct result of disciplined execution against the strategy we outlined 18 months ago," chairman and chief executive David Goeckeler said in the release. Visoso added: "We expect to return 100 percent of excess cash to our shareholders after investing in the business." Elsewhere, 24/7 Wall St. lists Friday targets of $2,100 at Citi, $1,600 at RBC and $1,550 at Wells Fargo; consensus at stockanalysis.com averages $2,094.41 across 23 analysts.

What none of this settles is whether the contract structure removes cyclicality or merely relocates it. Floor pricing and multi-year commitments protect the seller when spot NAND falls, cap the seller when it rises, and transfer the volatility to the buyer. Elsewhere on Friday's tape, an edge-AI chip company cut full-year revenue guidance by roughly two-thirds and blamed memory inflation directly.

The contracts are also young. Eight agreements signed into a shortage tell you what customers will pay when they are frightened of running out of bits. They do not tell you what those customers do at renewal once wafer capacity has had four years to respond. Sur's December 2027 target date sits before that question has to be answered.